A polite suggestion when the price of bullion shifts erratically up and down: read what follows, then never speak of gold again.

Why? Promotion, trading, conversation and analysis of the precious metal loved by talk radio hosts represents pretty much every weakness in the modern system of extracting fees from those with savings to invest.

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Indeed, gold is the perfect medium for pseudo-analysis and the posture of investment authority because there is only ever one piece of relevant information — the price at which gold is bought and sold today.

What this means is attempts to debunk any particular argument about the direction of that price are part of a larger failure. Engagement, even with noble motives, legitimises the sense there is serious discussion taking place, that with a bit more thought or insight it might be possible to predict the future price of gold.

There is no overarching theory, however. Every argument, every correlation with inflation, growth, bond prices or albatross sightings is only good for a while before it breaks down. Any long-term claim about what a Victorian dandy or Patagonian gaucho might have bought with a disc of gold as some sort of underlying measure of value will have decades when they could be swapped for far more or far less.

Instead there is only fashion. As male faces go from glabrous to lumberjack and back, so too the cost of an ounce of gold ebbs and flows.

Obviously, there are fads in many markets. Witness the enthusiasm for dividend-paying shares or the desire for safe bonds that has pushed yields for many of them below zero. Unscrupulous stock promoters thrive in the world of small companies.

The difference is financial assets can tangibly disappoint. Bonds go unpaid, companies suspend dividends or even go bust. Their value is in, and demonstrated by, cash flows. So the jolt when it finally becomes clear the cash is not there can end the fad.

Movement in the gold price can long be rationalised, however. In fact a significant part of the problem is how the fashion was adopted, and made palatable to the mainstream, by notable poseurs after the financial crisis of 2008. Successful hedge fund managers, for instance, started to talk about allocating a small part of portfolios to the metal, just in case.

There may have been a trading strategy — the price of gold is rising! — but it should be better understood in the way such investors must market themselves. The world is complicated and dangerous, so trust us to look after your money because we’re prepared for all eventualities.

Legitimacy followed, when the metal became a professional answer to anxieties about monetary policy, fears of what might come while memory of the last crisis lingered. It offered both simplicity, and the sort of contrarian posture popular after a very small number of people made giant fortunes betting against the way the US housing bubble was financed. Have you seen the balance sheet at the Federal Reserve? Buy Gold!

In long-stable parts of the developed world, maybe a bag of gold coins buried in the garden offers a sort of nihilist insurance policy, allowing those who worry about scenarios somewhere between zombie apocalypse and the internet being switched off to sleep a little easier.

What the machinery of finance is very good at is turning that impulse into saleable products. Gold bullion kept in vaults somewhere, possibly even with your name next to a particular pile. Exchange traded funds also backed by hoards. Gold accumulation plans, gold options, gold futures.

Lumps of metal, sold to some as insurance policy against financial disaster, wrapped up deep within that very system. Even investors who know better sometimes feel compelled to offer an opinion, when gold investment products offer only costs and the hope a good gold price coincides with the desire to sell it.

None of which is to say fashion is not legitimate business. The point is to recognise fashion is all that the gold price is and ever can be. To fight its fans with facts and figures is to offer attention, which is all the poseur ever really wants.

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